Excerpt: For over 40 years, seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panama has followed a consistent pattern. Between the end of the calendar year and early spring, trade winds from the north push surface waters offshore, drawing cooler, deeper water upward. The process delivers nutrients that stimulate phytoplankton growth, forming the foundation of the marine food web. .................
In early 2025, that system failed. No cold water rose to the surface. No spike in surface chlorophyll was recorded. Ocean surface temperatures remained elevated through the season. According to data collected by scientists aboard the S/Y Eugen Seibold, a research vessel jointly operated by the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and the Max Planck Institute, the vertical movement of water that characterizes the upwelling was entirely absent. The study documenting the event, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, confirms it as the first complete suppression of the upwelling in the observational record. Researchers noted that this shift eliminated a key stabilizing mechanism in the region’s marine ecosystem and exposed vulnerabilities in the broader ocean-climate system.
Winds Weaken, With Cascading Effects
At the center of the disruption was a collapse in atmospheric drivers. The northern trade winds, normally responsible for triggering the upwelling process, were significantly weaker in early 2025. As a result, surface waters remained in place, and the temperature differential needed to initiate vertical mixing did not materialize. The absence of cooler waters had immediate ecological effects. Without an influx of nutrients, phytoplankton production declined sharply. Satellite observations confirmed reduced chlorophyll-a concentrations throughout the Gulf of Panama during the period when biological productivity typically peaks.
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